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San Francisco at San Diego (-9.5)
San Diego is about as schizophrenic as McMurphy in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.” After a 2-5 start, the Chargers won four straight heading into December, a month during which it had never lost under Norv Turner – until the Raiders clobbered them in Week 13 to seemingly kill their playoff hopes. Last week, however, aided by Matt Cassel’s appendix, which decided to flare up at the worst possible time for Kansas City, San Diego ripped the first place Chiefs 31-0 to climb back over .500 and reinsert themselves into the AFC West race.
 
Not surprisingly, the Chargers are better than the 49ers by any statistical measure, except for defensive efficiency, where San Francisco’s No. 17 ranking in our Bendability Index is far superior to San Diego’s No. 28 ranking. The Chargers give up a lot of cheap points, on other words, and it’s one big reason why they’re a humble 7-6 despite dominance in so many other areas.
 
Everywhere else, however, this is not a close matchup, especially in the passing game, where Philip Rivers (103.1 rating) and the Chargers have a huge edge in Passing Yards Per Attempt (No. 1 vs. No. 14) and Passer Rating Differential (No. 1 vs. No. 22). San Diego also wins the Defensive Passer Rating battle handily (No. 2 vs. No. 23). The 49ers, at 5-8, are still in the hunt in the terrible NFC West and are coming off a huge blowout win over Seattle last week. But the Chargers simply have too much for any member of the NFC Worst.
 
San Diego 31, San Francisco 16   bet now
 
New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5)
We’re not sure a matchup gets much closer than this titanic showdown between two likely playoff-bound teams in Baltimore. The one major difference between the teams would appear to be in the trenches when the Saints’ superior Offensive Hogs (No. 3) line up against Baltimore’s middle-of-the-pack Defensive Hogs (No. 16). Yes, that’s right, wwe said it: despite the great reputation of Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs & Co., Baltimore’s D-Hogs are merely mediocre.
 
So expect Drew Brees to have all day in the pocket when the Saints drop back to pass: Baltimore is a lowly 28th at forcing Negative Pass Plays (7.41%). New Orleans is 6th at preventing them (6.54%), despite Brees’ 18 picks. New Orleans also brings the NFL’s sixth-ranked scoring offense (25.4 PPG) into the game, while Baltimore is merely mediocre (14th) on offense (22.6 PPG). The Saints are playing so well right now – six straight wins – it’s hard to pick against them. Their superior offense facing a Baltimore defense that just surrendered 28 points at Houston gives them a leg up in what is otherwise an even battle.
 
New Orleans 24, Baltimore 21    bet now
 
Arizona at Carolina (-3.5)
We’re not sure how many diehard Carolina fans will show up for this game, but those who do deserve a medal or a free psychiatric evaluation from Nurse Ratched. A side note to our female readers: the Cold, Hard Football Facts crew offers free breast exams at all NFL games. In the mean time, these teams are so bad passing the football that even BrettFavre’s typical turnover-prone Sunday would represent an improvement in that area for each club.
 
Arizona and Carolina rank Nos. 31 and 32, respectively, in both Passing Yards Per Attempt and Passer Rating Differential. Moreover, both teams are starting rookie QBs with passer ratings in the 55-56 range. The Cardinals are going with John Skelton, who is fresh off a 15 for 37 (40.5%), 146-yard performance against Denver last week, while the Panthers are sticking with the struggling Jimmy Clausen (1 TD, 7 INTs, 55 passer rating in 2024). 
 
At least the Cardinals won last week, and did so impressively, 43-13 over Denver. The Cardinals scored a defensive TD and a TD on a fake field goal last week, giving them an amazing 10 non-offensive TDs for the season. So Arizona continues to rank high (No. 7) on our Scoreability Index, a statistical anomaly for a team that struggles so mightily everywhere else. It’s hard to pick Arizona on the road against anyone, which is probably why the Red Birds are underdogs in this game against a 1-12 team. But the Cardinals are clearly the more efficient team on both sides of the ball. The Panthers, meanwhile, counter with the NFL's worst offense (12.6 PPG).
 
And, using our advanced scientific metrics, we are able to determine that Carolina is just very, very bad.
 
Arizona 27, Carolina 13   bet now
 
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-1.5)
We picked the Browns to win in Buffalo last week. But we also warned against the Jake Delhomme Factor. It turns out we were wrong on the pick because we were right about Delhomme, who submitted an 86-yard, 0 TD, 1 INT, 49.2 rating disaster against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Browns offense disappeared in a 13-6 loss to the Bills. Note to selves: trust your Jake Delhomme instinct.
 
This week, Delhomme appears to be a non-factor because rookie Colt McCoy (85.3 rating), who spearheaded Cleveland’s midseason revival before getting hurt, reportedly is healthy enough to start again. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is long on big names but short on efficiency. T.O., Ochocinco, Palmer, Benson, et al. are 2-11 because they’re No. 21 in Scoreability, No. 29 in Bendability and No. 27 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, a prime measure of passing efficiency.
 
The Bengals are also bad in the trenches: 26th on the Offensive Hog Index and 28th on the Defensive Hog Index. Other than those few itsy bitsy problems, the T.O.-Ochocinco tandem has been a smash hit!
 
Cleveland’s No. 14 Defensive Hogs should have a big advantage against Cincinnati’s No. 26 Offensive Hogs. And RB Peyton Hillis (4.5 YPA) gives the Browns a big advantage against a Cincinnati run defense that allows 4.59 YPA (26th). The Browns won the first meeting between these two teams, 23-20, back in Week 4 with Seneca Wallace behind center. With a healthy McCoy back in action, look for the Browns to sweep the Battle of Ohio in 2024.
 
Cleveland 24, Cincinnati 20   bet now
 
Washington at Dallas (-6.5)
Two teams going in opposite directions hook up down in Dallas for the first time since Week 1. Back then, the Cowboys had a game-winning touchdown called back by a holding penalty, handing Mike Shanahan a victory in his Redskins coaching debut. Shanahan probably had no clue back in Week 1 that the victory over Dallas would be one of the few highlights of his first season in D.C. The Redskins are 5-8, have lost three in a row, and found an especially excruciating way to lose last week when they failed to execute a PAT kick that would have tied their game against Tampa Bay in the final seconds.
 
The Cowboys lost to the Eagles last week to drop to 3-2 under Jason Garrett. But both losses since Garrett took over were by 3 points and came against teams that are a combined 19-7 this season (New Orleans and Philadelphia). So it would appear that Garrett has Dallas moving in the right direction. The Cowboys still have one of the most inefficient defenses in football (No. 31 in Bendability) and also possess one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses (No. 30 in Defensive Passer Rating). Their Defensive Hogs (No. 23) are also shabby.
 
But they’ve improved everywhere else under Garrett. Dallas has moved up to No. 12 on the Offensive Hog Index, No. 9 in Scoreability, and continues to hold down the No. 5 spot in Passing Yards Per Attempt behind backup QB Jon Kitna (88.7 rating). The Redskins, on the other hand, have an efficient defense (No. 9 in Bendability), but not much else. They rank 25th or worse in five of our other six keynote Quality Stats. Most importantly, the Cowboys have big advantages n Passing Yards Per Attempt and Passer Rating Differential. A home team on the rise that dominates the passing match-ups is usually a winner.
 
Dallas 30, Washington 20   bet now
 
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5.5)
The Trolls in our Fabulous Football Forum identified Jags-Colts as the “biggest game that nobody is talking about.” The AFC South race basically boils down to Sunday afternoon. If Jacksonville wins this game, they wrap-up the division regardless of what happens over the final two weeks because they will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy, having won the first meeting between the teams in Jacksonville on a miracle 59-yard field goal by Josh Scobee as time expired.
 
If the Colts win, the teams are tied atop the division at 8-6 (3-2 divisional record for each) and it becomes a two-game season. You could argue that it’s the biggest game in recent Jacksonville history: a chance to prove that they’re the equal of the Colts. It’s a test they’ve failed for most of the past decade. Last week against Tennessee, the Colts finally listened to our advice and unveiled a balanced offensive attack that neatly mixed the pass and run. The result was Indy’s first win in four weeks and an end to Peyton Manning’s three-week interception orgy (11 INTs in losses to New England, San Diego and Dallas). With a balanced attack behind him, Manning was his old stone-cold efficient self against the Titans (25 for 35, 319 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 118.6 rating).
 
Lesson to Planet Pigskin: Not even Peyton Manning should doubt the almighty wisdom of the Cold, Hard Football Facts!
 
The Jaguars have won five of six after outscoring the Raiders last week, 38-31. Jacksonville rushed for a whopping 234 yards (6.9 YPA) last week and averages a tremendous 4.72 YPC for the season. That spells bad news for  Indy's 30th-ranked Defensive Hogs, who allow 4.84 YPA on the ground (31st). Everywhere else, however, the Colts seem to have the advantage. They throw the ball better (No. 8 in Passing Yards Per Attempt vs. No. 21), they’re more efficient offensively (No. 5 in Scoreability vs. No. 14) and their ninth-ranked Offensive Hogs face a Jacksonville team that fields some of the league’s worst Defensive Hogs (25th).
 
The biggest problem? Manning is still one of the great passers of all time, despite his recent slump, and the Jaguars  remain hugely vulnerable in this area: No. 31 in Defensive Passer Rating. Jacksonville’s strong ground attack should keep the Jaguars in the game. But in the end, the Colts are better in the passing game, where it matters most, they’re at home and they need to win.
 
Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 27   bet now
 
Buffalo at Miami (-5.5)
Just when we thought they were out, the Dolphins pulled themselves back into the AFC playoff race with a 10-6 upset win at the Jets last week. Miami continues to be one of the oddest teams in the NFL this season: 6-1 on the road and 1-5 at home. So even though the Dolphins are better than the Bills, we don’t know what to expect out of the 'Fins in Miami. Buffalo is 3-10, but has lost only once by more than a field goal since October 10.
 
Buffalo’s offense, which had averaged more than 24 PPG in the first eight games under Ryan Fitzpatrick (85 passer rating), has fallen back to earth over the last three games (14.3 PPG). Miami’s strength is on defense, where they rank No. 11 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 4 on the Defensive Hog Index. In Passer Rating Differential, the Dolphins have the edge (No. 17 vs. No. 23 for Buffalo). Even though the Dolphins are ineffective on offense, Buffalo’s defense isn’t good enough to capitalize on that opportunity. And offensively, despite a good running game (4.43 YPA, 8th), the Bills aren’t exactly the 1998 Vikings either.
 
Miami 20, Buffalo 17    bet now
 
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-3.5)
This is a colossal showdown for the NFC East lead in New Meadowlands Stadium. Four weeks ago the Eagles seized the division lead with a 10-point win over the Giants at home. But the Giants have won three straight since then to pull back into a first-place tie. Eagles-Giants is so big it’s also our Game of the Week on SI.com. Our analysis will be the lead NFL story on SI.com on Friday. So check in then for our take.
 
Bottom line: it's a clash of styles between the explosive, Big Play-leading Eagles and the plodding, trench-war expert Giants.
 
NY Giants 27, Philadelphia 24
 
Kansas City at St. Louis (-1.5)
These two surprise teams from Missouri got a look at life at the Big Boy’s table last week, and neither liked it very much. The Chiefs, sans their MVP-candidate quarterback Matt Cassel (appendicitis), were smoked out 31-0 in San Diego and fell back into a tight race for the AFC West crown. The Rams visited the Super Bowl champion Saints and were taught a lesson in humility with a  31-13 loss. Of course, in the NFC West, St. Louis’s 6-7 record is still good for a share of first place with three weeks to go. The Chiefs still hold a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West. So the Battle of Missouri shapes up as a critical game for both teams with playoff implications in both conferences.
 
The outcome hinges on Cassel’s participation for Kansas City. He practiced this week, but is still not a sure bet to play. He’s gives the Chiefs a huge advantage in the passing game: KC is 15th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Sam Bradford and the Rams are 30th. The Chiefs also win the Passer Rating Differential matchup (No. 8 vs. No. 14). The Chiefs have a huge advantage on the ground, too. Behind a historic season from Jamaal Charles (192 carries, 6.13 YPA), Kansas City averages 4.83 YPA (4th) on the ground. The Rams are vulnerable against the run (4.49 YPA, 23rd).
 
The Rams have been tough at home this year but are just 1-3 overall against Quality Opponents. The Chiefs are the better team, but the outcome depends on Cassel’s health. If he plays, Kansas City wins. If he doesn’t play, well, how did that Brodie Croyle thing workout for the Chiefs last week?
 
Kansas City 24, St. Louis 20 (assuming Cassel plays)   bet now
 
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-6.5)
The Lions knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the game last week and then upset the Packers, 7-3, for their third win of the season. It was an incredible defensive effort by Detroit and a good win for a team which has started more quarterbacks this season (three) than the Packers have started over the last 19 seasons (two). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continues to be the most unimpressive 8-5 team in football. Their 1-point win last week in Washington was mainly the result of an extremely poor effort in the kicking game by the Redskins, including a botched PAT attempt in the final seconds. The Bucs are 8-0 against the NFL’s dregs and 0-5 against Quality Opponents.
 
Even the Lions boast one Quality Win (against seven losses). Detroit is an improved team this season, for sure, but they still rank No. 21 or worse in four of our seven keynote Quality Stats. The Lions do field the NFL’s No. 12 Defensive Hogs, backed by rookie stud Ndamukong Suh, which represents a huge improvement over recent years. But Tampa Bay counters with the NFL’s No. 3 Offensive Hogs, including a unit that’s No. 5 in Negative Pass Plays allowed. The ability of QB Josh Freeman to avoid mistakes in the passing game is one reason why the Bucs are a surprising playoff contender.
 
The Lions are down to their third-string QB, Drew Stanton (72.6 rating), while Tampa is No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating. So don't expect much from Detroit’s passing game this week. In the passing game breakdown, this one is all Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a big advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 10 vs. No. 24) and Passing Yards Per Attempt (No. 13 vs. No. 29). Freeman (87.9 rating), meanwhile, should find the skies over Raymond James Stadium pretty friendly against what’s still a very poor Detroit pass defense (No. 28 in Defensive Passer Rating).
 
Tampa Bay 23, Detroit 17   bet now
 
Houston at Tennessee (-1.5)
It’s getting to be white-knuckle time for the Cold, Hard Football Facts. Just three weeks to go and three more successful picks for us to complete the first perfect 16-0 season in the history of our real and spectacular picks. And it might be bare-knuckle time on the field Sunday. The last time these two teams met, the Texans won, 20-0, in a game marred by an ugly slughfest between Houston WR Andre Johnson and Tennessee DB Cortland Finnegan.
 
With another incredibly accurate prediction of Houston’s six-point loss to Baltimore on Monday night, we’re now 13-0 overall and 10-2 against the spread picking Texans games this season. We called for a 27-21 Baltimore victory. We got a 34-28 Baltimore victory. But the picks get tougher each week.
 
The Titans are statistically stout (top 10 in all of Quality Stats) and are particularly efficienct: No. 2 in Scoreability and No. 6 in Bendability. Those are numbers that normally equate to success: teams that win the efficiency battle (according to Scoreability-Bendability) win 85 percent of the time. But Tennessee is 5-8, has lost six in a row and is in total turmoil. They’re also stuck with ancient Kerry Collins (78.6 rating) at QB for the rest of the year. You know the story by now where the Texans are concerned. Their defense in general is bad: No. 23 on the Defensive Hog Index, No. 26 in Bendability and No. 30 in scoring (27.3 PPG).
 
And the pass defense, as you know, is atrocious: No. 32 in Defensive Passer Rating (103.13), while surrendering a league-high 29 TD passes. In other words, Houston makes every quarterback look like Tom Brady this season. Normally, we’d go with the team with the big advantage in Passer Rating Differential (Tennessee No. 15, Houston 25), especially if that team is at home. But in this case, Tennessee checked out on 2024 just about the time Vince Young threw his pads into the stands in one of the great hissy fits on modern NFL history.
 
Collins, his replacement, played very well last week against the Colts (3 TD, 0 INT, 113.6 rating), but hasn’t won a game since October 24 (a big win over the Eagles, no less). So we’ll hold our breath and take the road team here, and hope that our perfect record is still intact next week.
 
Andre Johnson 30, Cortland Finnegan 26   bet now
 
Atlanta (-6.5) at Seattle
This is a classic matchup of contender vs. pretender. The Falcons are tied with New England for the NFL’s best record (11-2), they’re 5-2 vs. Quality Opponents and rank No. 5 or better in three of our keynote Quality Stats (Bendability, Scoreability, Offensive Hogs). The Seahawks, at 6-7, are tied for first place with the Rams in the putrid NFC West, are coming off an embarrassing 19-point loss against a bad San Francisco team last week, and are just 2-3 against Quality Opponents.
 
Pro football is all about the quarterback, and Atlanta rules this battle: Matt Ryan (90.7 rating) easily trumps Matt Hasselbeck (75.2). Atlanta also wins the Passing Yards Per Attempt matchup (No. 16 vs. No. 20) and has a big edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 12 vs. No. 28 for Seattle). Qwest Field is alleged to be one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. But the last two times a Quality Opponent rolled into town, the Seahawks got hammered (42-24 by the Chiefs and 41-7 by the Giants). Atlanta, meanwhile, is red hot with a 2024-best seven straight wins and need another victory to hold off New Orleans in the NFC South.
 
Atlanta 31, Seattle 17   bet now

Denver at Oakland (-6.5)
There have been some notable bad decisions in the sports world over the past year. For example, Tiger Woods last year sent hundreds of dirty text messages to all of his mistresses and, it seems, to every whore in Las Vegas. The Cold, Hard Football Facts last week picked the Broncos to beat the Cardinals. It’s clear that the Broncos, in the wake of the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, have joined the short list of teams in the 2024 season’s express checkout line.
 
Even Kyle Orton is falling apart. He was having a statistically tremendous season through Week 12, but has submitted two stinkers in a row (46.3 rating vs. Kansas City; 27.1 rating and 3 INT vs. Arizona). Oakland presents a very bad match up for the Ponies. The Raiders have been pounding the football in recent weeks: Darren McFadden averages 52. YPA and the team overall averages a tremendous 4.79 YPA (5th).
 
The Broncos counter with a defenseless group of Defensive Hogs: No. 31 on the DHI and No. 22 against the run (4.47 YPA). Denver’s D-Hogs are especially bad at forcing mistakes in the passing game: dead last in Negative Pass Plays (5.66%). There’s also the fact that the last time these two teams met, back when the Broncos still had playoff hopes, and the Raiders were just hoping to avoid the AFC West basement, Oakland rolled up 328 rushing yards and scored 59 points, in Denver.
 
Oakland 34, Denver 17   bet now
 
NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Three weeks ago this showdown at Heinz Field looked destined to be a battle for homefield advantage in the playoffs, and maybe even an AFC title game preview. The latter scenario could still play out. But after the turbulent ride on Gang Green Airlines in recent weeks, we know now that home field probably goes through Foxboro first and Pittsburgh second. It’s not hard to identify the main problem with the Jets: QB Mark Sanchez has thrown 0 TDs with 6 INTs against New York’s last three Quality Opponents (Green Bay, New England, Miami), all losses. Sanchez has submitted passer ratings of 43.3, 27.8 and 45.3 in those three games the Jets have scored a total of 9 points.
 
The Steelers, meanwhile, have won four straight since their Close Encounter of the Worst Kind with New England’s space-age offense back in Week 10. Other than that blip, Pittsburgh continues to be a dominant force, especially on defense, as we noted this week in our look at The Defense of Troy. They’re a battle-tested team that’s 4-3 against Quality Opponents, they rank in the top 10 in five of our seven keynote stats, and they’re No. 2 in Bendability, No. 2 on the Defensive Hog Index, No. 2 in scoring defense (15.2 PPG) and No. 1 in run defense (2.92 YPA). Pittsburgh remains on pace to be one of the five stingiest run defenses in the Super Bowl Era.
 
In the all-important passing game, this one is no contest. Ben Roethlisberger, surgically repaired nose and all, is playing well (94.8 rating) and Pittsburgh ranks No. 9 in Passing Yards Per Attempt. The Jets in recent weeks have proved incapable of moving the ball against good defenses. The Steelers have a very, very good defense. Yet another promising season spirals further out of control for Gang Green Airlines and the Same Ol’ Jets.
 
Pittsburgh 24, N.Y. Jets 3   bet now
 
Green Bay at New England (-10.5)
By the numbers, this game appears similar to last week’s Patriots-Bears matchup in Chicago: great New England offense against a great NFC North defense. But you know what happened last week: Tom Brady & Co. romped past Chicago in snowy, windy conditions, oblivious to the elements or the quality of the opponent. The Patriots held a 33-0 lead at the half before calling off the dogs.
 
The big question this week is the health of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (concussion). Coach Mike McCarthy said he’ll make a decision on Saturday. The differences between Rodgers and back-up Matt Flynn could not be more stark: Rodgers right now is the all-time leader in career passer rating (97.6) and TD-INT ratio (2.6 to 1), the only passer in history better than Brady in that latter category. Flynn, meanwhile, has attempted just 46 passes in three NFL seasons and has never thrown a TD. He was useless last week against the lousy Lions defense, a shocking 7-3 Detroit victory over the statistically stout Pack.
 
The Patriots, meanwhile, have improved dramatically on pass defense in recent weeks. They were once as low as No. 29 in Defensive Passer Rating. They’re up to No. 19 today, and second in the NFL with 20 INTs (Philly, 22). Green Bay’s bread and butter, though, is on defense and on pass defense in particular. The Pack is No. 1 in both scoring defense (14.5 PPG) and Defensive Passer Rating (68.09). But stout defenses have proven no obstacle for New England: they’ve humiliated three of the league’s best defenses in recent weeks (Pittsburgh, N.Y. Jets, Chicago).
 
The Patriots are also an NFL-best 7-1 vs. Quality Opponents. It’s possible they could end the year with a record eight Quality Wins in a single season. Green Bay is just 2-3 against its five Quality Opponents. If Rodgers plays in this game, Green Bay’s passing offense can do pretty much whatever it wants against the New England pass defense. But even then, we like the Patriots to outscore the Packers. If Flynn gets the nod, look for New England to romp.
 
New England 34, Green Bay 27 (with Rodgers)
New England 38, Green Bay 20 (without Rodgers)   bet now
 
Chicago (-2.5) at Minnesota
Football Nation: Our long national nightmare is over. BrettFavre’s consecutive games started streak finally ended last week at 297.
 
There’s no word on when ESPN will raise the flags outside of its Bristol headquarters back to full mast. But we’re guessing that the official mourning period over the loss of BrettFavre’s streak will extend to 30 days, the time usually observed when a dignitary dies. Old Yeller is not deceased, of course, he’s just got a bum shoulder and a terrible passer rating (69.6). The Vikings, still suffering from the effects of Old Yeller Fever even after the end of his streak, have not put BrettFavre on injured reserve and say they have “no plans to do so.”
 
That decision means that BrettFavre could play again in 2024, which is great news for Minnesota’s opponents. Tavaris Jackson (63.9 rating, 3 TD, 4 INT)  led the Vikings to a win over Buffalo two weeks ago but came crashing back to earth against the Giants last week (46.3 rating) in a 21-3 loss. Jackson is also hurt (turf toe) and could possibly miss this game, which would leave the Minnesota offense in the hands of third-stringer Joe Webb, a rookie.
 
(Update: the Vikings announced at 12:40 p.m. Thursday that Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. Sayonara Tarvaris. Life is tough in the Not for Long League. Too bad the Vikings couldn't find a durable quarterback you can count on to start every week, year after year.)
 
Throw in the fact that this game had to be moved from the cozy, passer-friendly indoor confines of the Metrodome to the frigid outdoor air of the University of Minnesota’s home stadium, and Minnesota's passing game Monday night could be as non-existent as a typical CHFF troll’s sex life.
 
Truth be told, the Bears could use the break. Chicago’s proud defense was humiliated in “Bear Weather” last week at home by the Patriots. So a Minnesota offense that’s not scaring anyone right now could be just what Dr. Ditka ordered. There should be more “Bear Weather” on Monday night. But this time Tom Brady won’t be staring across the line of scrimmage at Brian Urlacher and Co.Whether the opposing QB is BrettFavre, Jackson or Webb, the Bears should romp.
 
Chicago 21, Minnesota 14   bet now

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With one game already in the book for week 14, the NFL just keeps on coming! The NFL expert picks are in again thanks to our friends at the Cold Hard Football Facts who have used their statistical prowess to provide you with the best free NFL picks on the internet. Free? Yeah, that's right. We provide all NFL picks for free! Every week! All you have to do is visit your sportsbook and win some serious money!

Cleveland at Buffalo (-1.5)
This is the type of game that only degenerates like us could love: a mid-December meeting in frigid Buffalo between two teams going absolutely nowhere. Truth be told, if the Browns got their act together a few weeks earlier in 2024, they could be going somewhere, because they’ve won four of their last six and were extremely competitive in the two losses. But instead of going somewhere, a victorious trip to Buffalo is about all they can hope for this year. 
 
The Bills had been a very competitive team, despite their record, for several straight weeks. But then at Minnesota (a 38-14 loss) last Sunday they showed why they’re 2-10 and headed for another top 10 draft pick in April. Cleveland wins the Quality Stats battle, handily, in every category except for Scoreability and the Offensive Hog Index. But even Cleveland’s deficiency along the offensive line will be difficult for Buffalo’s 32nd-ranked Defensive Hogs to exploit.
 
In the all-important battle of the passing games, the Browns are clearly superior on both sides of the ball (No. 15 in Passer Rating Differential, while Buffalo is a poor 24th). 
The one thing that concerns us is the Jake Delhomme Factor. The veteran gunslinger has started in place of injured rookie Colt McCoy for the past couple of weeks (both Cleveland wins). He even managed to avoid INTs in a sharp performance at Miami last week (97.3 rating). But over the course of the season, Delhomme remains susceptible to the INT, as usual (2 TDs, 6 INTs, 65.6 season passer rating).
 
Buffalo’s terrible Defensive Hogs, who allow 4.70 YPA on the ground (30th) should provide a welcome invitation for Peyton Hillis (962 yards, 4.4 YPA) to run wild. And Buffalo’s lousy pass defense (94.43 Defensive Passer Rating, 27th) may not be capable of taking advantage of Delhomme’s penchant for picks.
 
Cleveland 20, Buffalo 17    bet now
 
Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina
After a meat-grinder of a schedule (league-best 5-2 against Quality Opponents), the Falcons, who are tied for the NFL’s best record with New England, get a break this week. 
After all, what more can we say about Carolina’s ineptitude that hasn’t already been said? The Panthers made the mediocre Seahawks look like the 1986 Giants last week. So this meeting with one of the best teams in the league doesn’t bode well for them.
 
Oddly enough, the 1-11 Panthers are better than the 10-2 Falcons in several of our defensive indicators, including our Defensive Hog Index (11th) and Defensive Passer Rating (8th). Atlanta is No. 22 in both categories. But at the end of the day, the Panthers surrender at lot more points (25.6 PPG, 26th) than the Falcons (19.4 PPG, 7th). One wonders how that Carolina defense might fare if every other part of the team didn’t suck so bad (30th or worse in our other five key Quality Stats).
 
The Falcons, meanwhile, are No. 2 on the Offensive Hog Index, No. 2 in Scoreability and No. 6 in Bendability. They also have a huge advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 12 vs. No. 31), a huge advantage in our secret-recipe Power Rankings (No. 2 vs. No. 32) and a huge advantage in not sucking.
 
Atlanta 30, Carolina 17   bet now
 
Green Bay (-7.5) at Detroit
The Lions continue to play competitive football … and continue to lose close games. Despite a 2-10 record, the Lions are just -28 in scoring differential this season. They’ve become a pretty efficient team on the offensive side of the ball (No. 8 in Scoreability), even with their top two quarterbacks out with injuries. Of course, years of losing breeds more losing and teams like Detroit usually find new and creative ways to lose every year. The Lions have certainly been creative losers here in 2024.
 
The Packers remain a Quality Stats juggernaut 12 games into the season, as they sit atop Bendability, Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential. They're No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 5 in Scoreability. More importantly, Green Bay is No. 1 in scoring defense (15.2 PPG) while QB Aaron Rodgers (23 TDs, 9 INTs, 100.3 rating) should garner some strong MVP consideration.
 
Actually, given all that dominance, the Packers should be better than 8-4 at this point. We saw the same thing out of this team last year: the Packers were statistical heavyweights with Super Bowl-champ caliber numbers across the board ... and couldn't even win a playoff game. Just a note of concern to keep in the back of your cheesehead.
 
Detroit kept the last meeting at Lambeau Field very close (a 28-26 loss), while third-string Lions QB Drew Stanton had a very strong game against last week against a Chicago defense that’s the statistical twin of Green Bay’s. Detroit should keep it closer than the experts think – before finding yet another creative way to lose.
 
Green Bay 26, Detroit 20    bet now
 
Oakland at Jacksonville (-5.5)
Two of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL meet in Jacksonville Sunday. The Raiders are fresh off their second “stunning” big win over San Diego this season. (Of course, when you beat a six-loss team twice, we guess it shouldn't “stun” anybody, should it?) But before that win over the Chargers, Oakland suffered back-to-back embarrassing losses to Pittsburgh and Miami. The Jaguars have won four of their last five after a 3-4 start and have seized first place, for now, in the AFC South.
 
The Raiders have played .500 football despite an inability to pass effectively (72.65 passer rating, 5.69 Passing Yards Per Attempt). Oakland’s success can be attributed to a very strong running game (4.70 YPA, 4th), an efficient offense (No. 6 in Scoreability) and a solid defensive front (No. 8 Defensive Hogs).
 
Jacksonville also runs the ball well (4.53 YPA, 6th) and struggles in the passing game (22nd in Passing Yards Per Attempt and 26th in Passer Rating Differential). But QB David Garrard’s performance in recent weeks (three games with a 91.1 passer rating or better) has helped the Jaguars improve in that area.
 
Overall, the Raiders are better in most of our Quality Stats. But we all know that teams typically struggle in those long, cross-country trips. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has a slight edge in the all-important passing game and needs a win to stay atop their division.
 
Jacksonville 27, Oakland 24    bet now
 
NY Giants (-1.5) at Minnesota
Another week, another episode of “As BrettFavre Turns.” BrettFavre Network actually interrupted its entire mid-day broadcasting schedule Wednesday to run BrettFavre’s latest press conference. When news of the upcoming presser was released Wednesday morning, sports yakkers around the country lit up like Wavy Gravy at Woodstock ... "It this the day that BrettFavre walks off into the sunset!?" one sports gabber in our part of the country yelled breathlessly. 
 
Sadly, it was not the end of the road for BrettFavre. The press conference was broadcast coast to coast merely to report that BrettFavre would not practice on Wednesday. In any case, Old Yeller performed a true Christmas miracle last week against Buffalo: He was injured on the third play of the game, but still managed to throw his 18th interception of the season. His passer rating now stands at 69.6, which puts him in Derek Anderson/Jimmy Clausen territory.
 
We think his greatest moment is still yet to come: they day in 2046 when Packers fans celebrate the golden anniversary of their last Super Bowl victory by digging up BrettFavre's bones and putting them under center for the playoffs because, you know, BrettFavre's bones give them the best chance to win. His replacement last Sunday, Tarvaris Jackson, struggled with three picks, but still provided a huge spark, leading the Vikings to their highest point total of the season (38) as Minnesota won its second straight game since the firing of Brad Childress. The Vikings scored more points in the first half under Jackson (28) than they had in any entire game all year (27).
 
In most towns, Jackson would be the obvious starter. Not in BrettFavreVille. The team’s explosive success last week hasn’t kept new coach Leslie Frazier from announcing that if BrettFavre’s injured shoulder is strong enough to let him play in this game, then BrettFavre will play. Frazier’s gutless decision is great news for the Giants.
 
New York needs this game to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. And they bring a lot of weapons into their battle against the league’s worst quarterback. They rank No. 5 in Defensive Passer Rating, No. 2 in our Defensive Hog Index and they’re No. 2 at forcing Negative Pass Plays. With Old Yeller the interception machine behind center, this could get real ugly, real fast.
 
New York is vastly superior to Minnesota in every category except for Bendability, where the Vikings have a slight advantage (No. 21 vs. No. 23 for the Giants). If BrettFavre plays, we expect the Giants to roll. If Frazier grows a set of balls and puts Jackson in the game, the Vikings could keep it close. 

N.Y. Giants 28, Minnesota 17    bet now
 
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-9.5)
We have to give the Bengals some credit. They’re 2-10 and going nowhere, but they still took the Saints down to the wire last Sunday. Of course, the Bengals are 2-10 because they make stupid mistakes, like jumping offside on 4th and 2 inside their own 5-yard line to give up a gift first down with the game hanging in the balance.
So we give Marvin Lewis credit for motivating his team, but we realize that a Lewis club will never be coached well enough to win consistently. How many years of evidence do you need?
 
The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a bruising game at Baltimore last Sunday night, a game in which Ben Roethlisberger proved once again that he’s one tough S.O.B. and a great clutch QB. Big Ben took the field with a sprained right foot and had his nose splattered across his face on Pittsburgh’s first offensive series. But he stayed in there for four quarters, took Baltimore’s best shots with blood dripping onto his jersey, and still managed to make enough big plays down the stretch to get the Steelers into the end zone for the game-winning TD in the final 2 minutes.
 
The Steelers have the advantage in all seven of our keynote Quality Stats, with the biggest edge coming when their top-ranked Defensive Hogs face Cincinnati’s No. 24 Offensive Hogs. And it’s no contest in the passing game, too. Cincinnati foolishly employs two of the shiniest hood ornament receivers in the game (Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco). Yet the Bungles are a pathetic 26th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Pittsburgh is seventh in this indicator – one that’s always a strength for them with Big Ben at the helm.
 
The Bengals lost a number of close games, and the Steelers don’t blow out a lot of people. But Pittsburgh’s No. 2-ranked defense (15.9 PPG) will have no trouble swallowing Cincinnati’s ineffective offense (21.2 PPG, 20th).
 
Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 14    bet now
 
Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Washington
You know the story by now: Tampa Bay beats up bad teams (7-0) but loses to Quality Teams (0-5). Washington is not a Quality Team. In fact, the Redskins, at this point in the season, can make almost any opponent look good. They’ve lost four of their last five, and last week was a real doozy:  the ‘Skins held Eli Manning to a 62.3 passer rating yet still managed to get squashed by the Giants, 31-7.
 
Washington ranks 23rd or worse in five of our seven keynote Quality Stats, Donovan McNabb’s passer rating is down to 75.2 and the Redskins this week were forced to suspend malcontent (and highly overpaid) defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season. Otherwise, Mike Shanahan’s first season in D.C. is going great.

Tampa’s No. 4 Offensive Hogs have a big edge over Washington’s No. 25 Defensive Hogs, and Tampa Bay’s pass defense (No. 4 in Defensive Passer Rating) should make things difficult for the struggling McNabb.
 
Tampa Bay 24, Washington 17    bet now
 
St. Louis at New Orleans (-9.5)
The NFC West-leading Rams – yes, that’s right, the NFC West-leading Rams, mo-fos! – travel to New Orleans to face the defending champion Saints in this key NFC battle. The Rams ride a much-improved defense into playoff contention. They were 31st in scoring defense last year (27.2); they’re ninth in scoring defense this year (19.8 PPG). It’s not the 1985 Bears here. But the St. Louis defense is solid everywhere:  No. 2 in third-down defense (stop opponents 68.15%), No. 8 on our Defensive Hog Index, No. 8 at forcing Negative Pass Plays (9.64%), No. 10 in Bendability and No. 13 in Defensive Passer Rating.
 
Rrookie QB Sam Bradford (81.0 rating), meanwhile, is doing the game-manager thing while avoiding those ball-breaking interceptions (17 TDs, 10 INT). Coupled with a much improved defense, it's made the Rams a viable NFL team. St. Louis is also +5 in turnover ratio, a vast improvement over 2009 (-13). The Super Bowl champion Saints have won five in a row and are coming off two last-minute wins on the road at Dallas and Cincinnati. New Orleans is not the dominant team it was in 2009, but they’re winning the close games and have positioned themselves for a strong stretch run behind their big-time offense (No. 3 in total offense, No. 8 in scoring offense).
 
This is a fairly close match-up in our Quality Stats. But the Saints have a huge edge in the most important place of all, at quarterback. Drew Brees boasts a 94.6 passer rating and the Saints average 6.94 Passing Yards Per Attempt (fifth). Bradford has produced that 81.0 passer rating while the Rams average 5.39 Passing Yards Per Attempt (30th).
 
New Orleans 31, St. Louis 24    bet now
 
Seattle at San Francisco (-4.5)
The NFC West is so bad that the 49ers (4-8) can move to within a game of first place with a win over Seattle and a St. Louis loss to New Orleans. Seattle (2-4) is not a good road team and the 49ers (3-3) have at least done a decent job defending the home field this season. (The Seahawks won the first meeting in Seattle, way back in Week 1, 31-6.) 

Don’t expect much in the way of fireworks in this one, either: San Francisco is No. 27 in Offensive Passer Rating (74.96); Seattle is No. 28 (74.59). We don’t really trust the Seahawks, especially on the road. But the loss of RB Frank Gore has pretty much crippled an already bad 49ers offense, at least if QB Troy Smith's last two games are any indication.
 
Seattle 23, San Francisco 20    bet now
 
Denver (-3.5) at Arizona
Wow, how lucky are those Arizona season ticket holders who get to watch this beauty on Sunday between two hopeless three-win teams? Both the Broncos and Cardinals are disasters when it comes to our Quality Stats. But Arizona is a Category 5 disaster compared to Denver’s Category 4. The Broncos fired their young and overmatched head coach/GM Josh McDaniels this week. So if the 2024 pattern holds, Denver should catch fire, as have both Dallas (3-1 since canning Wade Phillips) and Minnesota (2-0 since waving goodbye to Brad Childress).
 
An “opening day” at Arizona could be just what the doctor ordered for Denver's interim head coach Eric Studesville as he tries to remove that “interim” from his job title. The bottom line, as always, is at quarterback: the Broncos at least have a good player there and the Cardinals do not. Denver QB Kyle Orton has thrown 20 TD against just 6 INT and is 10th in the NFL with a solid 93.0 passer rating.
 
Arizona intends to take the field with a quarterback from the Vaudeville act of John "Red" Skelton and Richard Bartel. Skelton is a rookie fifth-round draft pick out Fordham. Bartel is an unknown third-year player out of anonymity by way of Tarleton State.
 
Neither has attempted a pass in the NFL. The post-Kurt Warner Cardinals are already a disaster in the passing game: 31st in Passing Yards Per Attempt (4.89), 31st in Offensive Passer Rating (60.51) and 32nd in Passer Rating Differential (-26.67). And now they put that offense in the hands of Skelton or Bartel.
 
So congrats, Eric Studesville. Looks like you won the statistical interim head coach lottery this week.
 
Denver 27, Arizona 3    bet now
 
New England (-3.5) at Chicago
This is the Game of the Week at Sports Illustrated.com. You’ll see our overview of the game there midday Friday.
 
New England 26, Chicago 21    bet now
 
Kansas City at San Diego (-7.5)
We were ready to pick the Chiefs to win this game outright. It’s a classic example of a fantasy-friendly team in San Diego being overrated by the pigskin public. After all, the 8-4 Chiefs are clearly more efficient team and certainly more stable than the unpredictable 6-6 Chargers, even if Kansas City has faced just one Quality Team all year.
 
But the football world got the sudden news Wednesday that Kansas City’s incredibly effective quarterback Matt Cassel will miss the game because of an emergency appendectomy. He’s being replaced by Brodie Croyle, who has famously never won a game in five NFL seasons (0-9). 

The news changes everything.
 
This Kansas City team is better from top to bottom than those that Croyle has played for in the past. In fact, the Chiefs are perfectly capable of shoving the ball down San Diego’s throat, as the Raiders did to the Chargers last week. Kansas City is No. 2 running the ball (4.91 YPA), thanks largely to RB Jamaal Charles.
 
Charles is having a season for the ages (182 attempts, 1,137 yards, 6.25 YPA). He’s poised to join Jim Brown in 1963 (291 attempts, 6.40 YPA), Barry Sanders in 1997 (335 attempts, 6.13 YPA) and O.J. Simpson in 1973 (332 attempts, 6.,03 YPA) as the only running backs in history to average more than 6.0 YPA on the ground with at least 200 carries.
 
But Kansas City’s great ground game will have trouble moving the ball so effectively against a statistically stout defense that’s going to pack the box and dare Croyle to beat them. San Diego gets back into the AFC West race, while Chiefs fans wonder if a magical season has been ruined by a freak late-season appendectomy.
 
San Diego 27, Kansas City 17    bet now
 
Miami at NY Jets (-5.5)
Both AFC East Rivals are coming off embarrassing defeats. The Dolphins lost at home to the Jake Delhomme-led Browns, while the Jets suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history Monday night at New England.
 
The Dolphins are a perplexing team: They can’t seem to win at home (1-5) but they do very well on the road (5-1). Miami’s main problem this year is offense. They don’t run the ball well (3.77 YPA) and they can’t throw it effectively, either (76.77 offensive passer rating). Combine those two factors with incredible inefficiency (31st in Scoreability) and you get the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense (17.9 PPG).
 
New York’s defense was one of the tough guys on our Quality Stats block before Monday night. But after Tom Brady was through with them, New York’s defensive rankings had taken a big tumble. The biggest decline was a precipitous 11-spot fall in Defensive Passer Rating, from No. 4 to No. 15.
 
The good news for the Jets is that the Dolphins simply do not pose anything close to the offensive danger that the Patriots did last week. New York still fields the second best defense in football against the run (3.43 YPA), so the Dolphins will likely be forced to depend upon their quarterback to win.
 
And that’s not been a good situation for the Dolphins this year.
 
N.Y. Jets 19, Miami 13    bet now
 
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas
How ‘bout them Cowboys!
 
Dallas is now 3-1 since canning Wade Phillips and exorcising the Curse of Flutie. Those wins haven’t come cheap, either. Dallas has won at the N.Y. Giants and at Indianapolis, while losing a tough one at home to the Saints. Jason Garrett has the Cowboys playing well and primed to play a huge spoiler role down the stretch in the NFC East: this meeting in Big D is the first of two between the Eagles and Cowboys over the last four weeks of the season.
 
Despite their great start under Garrett, Dallas still has some major problems, such as the most inefficient defense in the NFL (No. 32 in Bendability), poor Defensive Hogs (No. 24) and a very bad pass defense, which still ranks a paltry 29th in Defensive Passer Rating – even after receiving 4 gift picks from Peyton Manning last week.
 
All those problems spell bad news against Philadelphia’s offense, quarterback Michael Vick and the best Big Play team in football. The Eagles quietly field the best rushing attack in football (5.24 YPA). They’re  No. 2 in scoring offense (28.7 PPG), No. 3 in Scoreability, and continue to ride the red-hot hand of Michael Vick, whose 105.7 passer rating this year is second only to Tom Brady’s 109.5.
 
Philadelphia 34, Dallas 28    bet now
 
Baltimore (-3.5) at Houston
Our perfect 12-0 streak picking the winner of every Houston game (9-2 ATS) is on the line Monday night as the Ravens visit Reliant Stadium. Baltimore is coming off a tough home loss to Pittsburgh and needs a win to stay in the AFC North hunt. The Texans still have a shot, albeit a slim one, to win the AFC South. But they can’t afford any more losses.
 
This is another classic “good offense vs. good defense” battle.
•The Ravens rank No. 4 in scoring defense (16.8 PPG), No. 5 in Bendability and No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating.
•The Texans rank No. 1 on our Offensive Hog Index, No. 9 in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 11 in scoring (24.0 PPG).
Defensively, after a week away from the basement, Houston’s pass defense recaptured the bottom rung on our Defensive Passer Rating charts with another wretched performance at Philadelphia last week.
 
Despite a tough night against Pittsburgh’s great defense last week, Joe Flacco still has a very strong 92.8 passer rating and the Ravens are 12th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. So this should be a good matchup for them against Houston's terrible pass defense.
 
Baltimore has a huge advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 6 vs. No. 22 for Houston), and that will be the difference in this game, as it usually is for the Texans.
 
Baltimore 27, Houston 21    bet now

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The Titans and Colts are two football teams in full desperation mode. This should create a great game on Thursday night’s AFC South battle in Nashville, TN. The Titans (5-7, 5-7 ATS), have lost 5 straight games and must win out and still need some help in order to slip into the postseason. Tennessee has lost three in a row to the Colts (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) and will have to go to battle with Kerry Collins at quarterback after Vince Young has been banned from the team.

The Colts are in a slump right now and, surprisingly, Peyton Manning is one of the main reasons behind this slump. He has thrown 11 interceptions during the past three Colts’ games. All of them losses. He has thrown four in each of their last two losses. Manning’s QB rating is down as well and a very average 89.4 percent this season. Perhaps a game against the Titans will help Manning regain some of his form since has torched the Titans, throwing 24 touchdowns with only nine interceptions over his career.

Unlike the Titans, thee Colts are still in the driver's seat when it comes to controlling their playoff chances. If they win out, they’re in. If not, the defending AFC champs could be taking January off. Something we predicted could happen months ago.

But as bad as the Indy offense has played recently, the Titans have been even worse. They’ve have only scored six points in their last two games and haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters. Part of the reason is the issue at QB, which has also lead to All-Pro running back Chris Johnson playing a lot worse than he is capable of. Johnson has been rushing for a total of 58 yards in losses at Houston and to Jacksonville. The addition of Randy Moss has done nothing for the Titans and has been a bust this season in general. Moss has yet to catch a touchdown pass as a Titan and has only five receptions in four games.

THE LINE

The Colts opened as around 2.5-point favorites. The line has been bumped up to -3 at most outlets.

Tennessee has covered the spread in 7 of its last 9 games as a home underdog.

THE TOTAL

The Colts average 26.4 while allowing 24.2 points per game.

The Titans average 21.9 while allowing 19.6 points per game.

Last year the Colts won both meetings (27-17 and 31-9).

The 16 meetings between the two teams have averaged 41.9 points

INJURY REPORT

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With one game already in the book for week 11, the NFL just keeps on coming! The NFL expert picks are in again thanks to our friends at the Cold Hard Football Facts who have used their statistical prowess to provide you with the best free NFL picks on the internet. Free? Yeah, that's right. We provide all NFL picks for free! Every week! All you have to do is visit your sportsbook and win some serious money!

New Orleans (-7.5) at Cincinnati
These two teams are going in opposite directions.
 
The Super Bowl champion Saints have won five of their last six and are fresh off a great escape down in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. The Bengals, who have lost eight in a row, hung tough with the Jets for a half on Thanksgiving before folding up their tents, Roberto Duran-like, and saying “no mas” in the second half.
 
The Saints win the Quality Stats battle in every category between these two teams. But the Bengals, despite their problems, do play pretty good pass defense (No. 11 in Defensive Passer Rating). So Drew Brees and Co. (No. 8 in Passing Yards Per Attempt) could find the going difficult for a while in this game.
 
New Orleans wins the Passer Rating Differential battle handily (No. 8 versus No. 16 for Cincinnati) and the Saints also are much better in the trenches, with a huge advantage when their sixth-ranked Offensive Hogs line up against Cincinnati’s 30th-ranked Defensive Hogs.
 
The Bengals pass defense may keep this one closer than it should be, but New Orleans is in a battle for playoff positioning and can’t afford to lose a game against an inferior opponent, so they should be well motivated.
 
New Orleans 27, Cincinnati 20   bet now
 
Chicago (-3.5) at Detroit
After years of being God-awful, Detroit’s defensive numbers actually didn’t look too bad after 10 games this season.
 
Then they ran into Tom Brady on Thanksgiving Day, who compiled a perfect passer rating and helped New England rack-up 45 points – 35 in the second half alone. Now Detroit’s defense, after 11 games, has the types of rankings we’re used to seeing from them in our Quality Stats every week: 27th in Defensive Passer Rating and 24th inBendability.
 
That’s more like it.
 
Chicago’s  horrid offensive line (No. 32-ranked Offensive Hogs) and ineffective downfield passing game (25th in Passing Yards Per Attempt) should offer a welcome reprieve for the Lions’ beleaguered pass defenders this week.
 
But Chicago also brings one of the best defenses in the NFL into Ford Field (No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating; No. 2 scoring defense; No. 4 Defensive Hogs). That spells trouble for a banged-up Detroit offense that produced just 7 second half points and turned the ball over twice against New England’s very shaky defense on Thanksgiving.
 
Chicago also wins the all-important Passer Rating Differential comparison by a pretty good margin (No. 11 versus No. 25 for Detroit).
 
The last time these two teams met, in Chicago on opening day, Detroit was denied a victory by the NFL’s bizarre “continuation” rule, which took away a game-winning TD catch by Calvin Johnson. This one also will be close, but we don’t think it will come down to the final seconds this time.
 
Chicago 24, Detroit 16   bet now
 
San Francisco at Green Bay (-9.5)
This could be the mismatch of the week.
 
The Packers have the advantage in every imaginable matchup against the 49ers in this game, with one exception.  San Francisco, surprisingly, has the much better Defensive Hogs (No. 6 versus No. 15 for Green Bay).
 
But even there, we’re a bit suspicious, as San Francisco is 4-2 against lesser-quality teams and 0-5 against Quality Opponents, so they’ve had plenty of opportunities to pad their defensive stats this season.
 
The Packers bring a stingy defense into this game, as they have the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, rank No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating, and No.1 in Bendability. The 49ers, on the other hand, can’t pass the ball effectively (22nd in Passing Yards Per Attempt), can’t score efficiently (No. 30 in Scoreability), and just lost their best offensive player, RB Frank Gore, for the season with a hip injury.
 
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers leads the 2nd-most efficient passing offense in the NFL (No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt), and the Packers also rank No. 5 in Scoreability. In Passer Rating Differential, it’s no contest (Green Bay is No. 2; San Francisco is No. 24).
 
In other words, this one shouldn’t be close.
 
Green Bay 34, San Francisco 10   bet now
 
Denver at Kansas City (-8.5)
The Broncos have exactly one thing going for them right now: Kyle Orton. The QB we’ve affectionately dubbed “The Horseshoe” is having an amazing season (62%, 3370 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT, 6.9 YPA, 96 rating) and he alone is keeping Denver from being a complete Quality Stats disaster, as his 6.9 Passing Yards Per Attempt average has the Broncos ranked No. 7 in that category.
 
Otherwise, Denver is a complete mess. They’re inefficient on both sides of the ball (No. 31 in Bendability; No. 26 in Scoreability), play terrible pass defense (No. 30 in Defensive Passer Rating) and stink in the trenches (No. 27 Offensive Hogs; No. 31 Defensive Hogs).
 
 They’ve also got the distraction of “Spygate II” hanging over them right now, and such a distraction is never a good thing for a 3-8 team that’s just playing out the string.
 
The Chiefs have seemingly righted their ship with two straight wins and still cling to their tenuous grip on the AFC West lead, just ahead of the surging Chargers. KC is solid, if not spectacular, in most areas, ranking no worse than 15th in any of our Quality Stats and as high as No. 4 in Passer Rating Differential and the Offensive Hog Index.
 
The Chiefs have a mediocre pass defense (No. 15 in Defensive Passer Rating), so Orton should be able to put up some numbers on Sunday, but KC has a big edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 4 versus No. 19) and is the much better team pretty much across the board.
 
Of course, all these indicators went for moot a few weeks ago, when the Broncos destroyed the Chiefs in Denver, 49-29.
 
But like old Uncle Festus used to say while teaching us the intricacies of moonshining, white lightning don’t strike twice.
 
Kansas City 31, Denver 21    bet now
 
Cleveland at Miami (-4.5)
The Browns have won three of their last five and have become a tough matchup for just about every opponent they’ve faced in recent weeks. The Dolphins have won two of three to crawl back into playoff contention.
 
In our Quality Stats:
•The teams are close to even in Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential (Miami has as slight edge there, No. 17 versus No. 20).
•The Browns are more efficient (No. 8 in Bendability and No. 22 in Scoreability; Miami is No. 17 in Bendability and No. 29 in Scoreability).
•The Dolphins are better in the trenches (No. 15 Offensive Hogs and No. 7 Defensive Hogs; Cleveland has the No. 20 Offensive Hogs and No. 14 Defensive Hogs).
There’s also the bizarre factoid that the Dolphins are just 1-4 at home this year, and 5-1 on the road.
 
When you break it down by category, this is a pretty close matchup, until you realize that Jake Delhomme (54.2 rating), who has 1 TD pass and 6 interceptions this year, and whose 2 interceptions (one a pick-six) nearly cost the Browns a game against lowly Carolina last week, is reportedly going to make his second straight start for Cleveland this week in place of the injured Colt McCoy.
 
If McCoy plays, we like the Browns to keep it closer and even win. Otherwise, the Dolphins will hold serve at home against an inferior team.
 
Miami 24, Cleveland 19   bet now
 
Buffalo at Minnesota (-6.5)
There’s a mythology surrounding the 2024 Vikings, and that mythology holds that Minnesota is a good football team that was being held back for the first 10 games of the season by the poor coaching of Brad Childress.
 
After Chilly got the axe last week the Vikings responded with a 17-13 win over Washington in the coaching debut of Leslie Frazier, and some “pundits” began declaring that Minnesota was back.
 
Mythology aside, the Cold, Hard Football Facts show that the Vikings, despite the win over the sub-.500 Redskins, are still a below-average football team. BrettFavre’s passer rating remains well below the Mendoza line of 80 (71.0, 10 TDs, 17 INTs) and Minnesota ranks 21st or lower in five of our seven key Quality Stats, including a woeful No. 31 ranking in Scoreability.
 
The Vikings’ inefficient offense has scored just 189 points this year and they average a pathetic 17.2 PPG.
 
Buffalo is coming off another gut-wrenching OT loss, their third of the season, against Pittsburgh last week, but the Bills have consistently played tough, competitive football ever since Ryan Fitzpatrick (85.2 rating) took over the QB job in Week 3.
 
That said, the Bills are also pretty bad across the board in our Quality Stats, ranking 22nd or lower in five categories, including a very bad 28th in Defensive Passer Rating; they also have the worst Defensive Hogs in the league.
 
The Vikings do one thing at least close to mediocre, and that’s pass the ball downfield with BrettFavre (when he’s not throwing interceptions), as they rank No. 15 in Passing Yards Per Attempt; and they do one thing very well, which is run the ball behind Adrian Peterson (1,016 yards, 4.7 YPC).
 
Against Buffalo’s poor secondary and even worse Defensive Hogs, we’ll take the Vikings at home, but Buffalo, as usual, should keep it close.
 
Minnesota 20, Buffalo 17   bet now
 
Washington at NY Giants (-7.5)
The Giants may have saved their season with a strong performance in the second half against Jacksonville last Sunday, overcoming an 11-point halftime deficit to pull out a much-needed win. 
What’s puzzling to us is how a team that is so dominant in so many areas can be so inconsistent (No. 9 Offensive Hogs; No. 3 Defensive Hogs; No. 3 in Passing Yards Per Attempt; No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating; and No. 7 in Passer Rating Differential).
 
The answer can be found in our Bendability and Scoreability indices, where the Giants rank 29th and 19th, respectively. That means the Giants are a poorly coached club that does poorly in situational football and plays inefficiently (for example, they’re a minus-6 in turnover differential).
 
These factors tell us why they’re just 7-4 despite being such a Quality Stats standout in other categories.
 
Of course, the 5-6 Redskins would love to have the Giants’ problems. Other than a pretty solid “bend but don’t break” defense (No. 10 in Bendability), Washington has problems everywhere, especially in the passing game, where Donovan McNabb (76 rating) continues to struggle and the Redskins rank 19th in Passing Yards Per Attempt and 26th in Passer Rating Differential.
 
This is a division game, so it should be a tough battle for awhile, but the Giants need this one, and they’re at home.
 
Interesting factoid: It’s already December, but this is the first of two meeting this year between the longtime division rivals. The meet in Washington on Jan. 2.
 
N.Y. Giants 27, Washington 17   bet now
 
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3.5)
The Titans have lost four in a row, are going through some internal turmoil and are coming off a disastrous performance at Houston last week. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are hot. They’ve won three of their last four to climb into a first place tie with the Colts atop the AFC South.
 
In the Quality Stats battle, however, the Titans have a big advantage. Tennessee remains one of the most efficient teams in the league (No. 5 in Bendability and No. 2 in Scoreability) and is solid in every other Quality Stats category, ranking no lower than 19th in any of them and as high as 11th (Defensive Hog Index) in some.
 
In Passer Rating Differential, the Titans dominate the Jaguars (No. 15 versus No. 30).
 
Jacksonville has a poor pass defense (No. 32 in Defensive Passer Rating) and poor Defensive Hogs (No. 28) and, as noted, ranks just 30th in Passer Rating Differential.
 
David Garrard, meanwhile, has started playing like his old self again in the last two weeks (65.1 rating against Cleveland; 57.1 rating against the Giants), and that ain’t good.
 
So why are we picking the Jaguars to win this game, especially on the road?
 
We like Jacksonville in this one because things are so bad in Tennessee right now that the Titans are actually praying that Kerry Collins (79.1 rating) can start at QB for them on Sunday so that they don’t have to play rookie Rusty Smith (25 rating) again.
 
When your hopes for victory rest on the shoulders of Kerry Collins, you know you’ve got some big problems.
 
Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 21   bet now
 
Oakland at San Diego (-13.5)
After another brutal start (2-5), San Diego has won four straight and is coming off an impressive beatdown of the Colts on the road last week.
 
The Chargers are now 25-5 under Norv Turner in November and December, and December has been their best month since Turner took over for Marty Schottenheimer after the 2006 season (an awesome 13-0).
 
The Chargers remain a dominant team in our Quality Stats: No. 1 in three categories (Passer Rating Differential, Passing Yards Per Attempt and the Defensive Hog Index), while ranking 3rd in Defensive Passer Rating and 4th in Scoreability.
 
Only a shoddy No. 28 ranking in Bendability stands out as a weakness right now for San Diego. The Chargers, put another way, give up a lot of cheap points. That problem explains why they’re 6-5.
 
Philip Rivers, meanwhile, continues to make his case for the NFL’s MVP award (66.2% comp., 3,362 yards, 23 TDs, 9 INT,  8.01 YPA, 104.9 rating).
 
The Raiders have lost two in a row, badly, against Quality Opponents Pittsburgh and Miami, after teasing their fans with a winning streak that got them to 5-4.
 
Oakland definitely is better this year than it’s been in recent seasons, as they put an efficient offense (No. 8 in Scoreability) and a solid defensive front (No. 9 in the Defensive Hog Index) on the field every week.
 
But the Raiders are a very bad team in the passing game, both on offense and defense. They rank 28th in Passing Yards Per Attempt, 26th in Defensive Passer Rating and 29th in Passer Rating Differential. They also have a poor offensive line (No. 25 Offensive Hogs).
 
Oakland won the first meeting between these two teams back when San Diego was racking up stats but losing games with stupid plays, but the Chargers have fixed most of their problems and they’re at home for this rematch.
 
We think it could get ugly, and fast.
 
San Diego 35, Oakland 17   bet now
 
St. Louis (-2.5) at Arizona
Wow, when was the last time the Rams were favored on the road? This fact alone outlines the stark difference between the Rams of the previous two seasons and this year, and the Cardinals of the previous two seasons and this year.
 
Behind rookie QB Sam Bradford (82 rating, 17 TDs and just 9 INTs) and an improved defense (No. 13 in Bendability, No. 10 Defensive Hogs), the Rams are 5-6 after winning just one game last year. Incredibly, that’s good enough to be tied for first place in the woeful NFC West.
 
The Cardinals are finding life AKW (After Kurt Warner) to be difficult. Arizona is a pretty bad team everywhere you look, ranking No. 21 or worse in 6 of our 7 key Quality Stats. After reaching heights never before seen in franchise history in the last few seasons with Warner at quarterback, the 2024 Cardinals are so bad at passing the football that coach Ken Whisenhunt had no choice but to let Derek Anderson (68.2 rating) remain his starting QB despite Anderson’s classic blowup in front of the media after last Monday’s embarrassing home loss to San Francisco.
 
That’s because Anderson, as bad as he’s been, is the best QB that Whisenhunt has right now.
 
Breaking down this game, it’s clear that neither team is going to be completing too many long bombs (St. Louis is No. 30 and Arizona is No. 31 in Passing Yards Per Attempt). But overall the Rams are simply a better team. Their No. 10 Defensive Hogs should have an easy time with Arizona’s No. 28 Offensive Hogs, and St. Louis easily wins the Passer Rating Differential matchup, too (No. 18 versus No. 32 for Arizona).
 
The Rams also finally won a road game last week (in Denver), so they’re now over that psychological hurdle.
 
St. Louis 24, Arizona 13    bet now
 
Dallas at Indianapolis (-5.5)
Perhaps for the first time since his rookie season, Peyton Manning is in a certifiable slump. The Colts have lost three of five since the bye week and find themselves battling for their playoff lives with five games to go, a very unfamiliar position for a team that’s been as dominant in the regular season over the last decade as any team in NFL history.
 
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have played very well since firing Wade Phillips and exorcising the Curse of Flutie three weeks ago. Only an unfortunate Roy Williams fumble late in the fourth quarter on Thanksgiving Day prevented Dallas from beating the Saints and winning its third straight in three tries since Jason Garrett took over for Phillips.
 
But then again, it’s plays like Williams’ fumble that have kept the Cowboys down all year, and it’s why such a talented team finds itself sitting at 3-8, playing a spoiler role late in the season instead of getting ready for the playoffs.
 
In this game, the one big advantage for Dallas is their No. 4 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt, as Jon Kitna (88.2 rating) has kept the ball moving downfield effectively while filling in for the injured Tony Romo.
 
Elsewhere, everything else seems to favor the Colts. They have the No. 9-ranked Offensive Hogs, giving them a big advantage over Dallas’ porous No. 24 Defensive Hogs. But, as we brilliantly pointed out earlier this week, Indy has a horribly unbalanced offense. Against those weak Dallas Defensive Hogs, the Colts have to at least try to run the ball more often to take some of the pressure off Manning and his banged-up receiving corps. Of course, when the Colts do throw it, they’ll be facing Dallas’ No. 29-ranked pass defense (per Defensive Passer Rating), which is a good thing. Passer Rating Differential (No. 13 versus No. 21) also favors Indy here.
 
Indy’s advantages when the Dallas defense is on the field will carry the day for the Colts. They rarely lose three in a row – hell, they rarely lose three – and aren’t about to drop back-to-back home games either.
 
Indianapolis 31, Dallas 28   bet now
 
Carolina at Seattle (-6.5)
Thanks to the magic ineptitude of the NFC West, this game between a truly terrible team (Carolina), and a below-average one (Seattle) actually has playoff implications, as the Seahawks (5-6) look to stay atop the NFL Worst.
 
The Panthers, pretty much because their former QB, Jake Delhomme, was taking the snaps for Cleveland last week, nearly won their second game of the season, but veteran kicker John Kasay missed a potential game-winning field goal on the game’s final play. It’s been that kind of year in Carolina.
 
As for this game, the Panthers actually bring a better defense into the contest, as they rank a solid 12th in our Defensive Hog Index and 13th in Defensive Passer Rating. Both offenses are pretty bad, but the Carolina offense is Freddy Krueger scary. Carolina ranks dead last in Scoreability and Passing Yards Per Attempt, 31st in the Offensive Hog Index and 31st in Passer Rating Differential.
 
Seattle, for that matter, is just 24th in Passing Yards Per Attempt, 30th in the Offensive Hog Index and 23rd in Passer Rating Differential.
 
The Seahawks have lost two in a row and four of their last five. But they won’t lose to this motley crew of Panthers, especially not at home in a must-win game.
 
Seattle 21, Carolina 10   bet now
 
Atlanta (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
The Cinderella Bucs are barely clinging to their playoff hopes as they host the team with the NFC’s best record, the Falcons.
Statistically, this game breaks down fairly evenly, with both teams tracking closely in many of our Quality Stats. The Falcons have a much more efficient offense (No. 9 in Scoreability versus No. 24 for Tampa Bay), while the Bucs’ pass defense (No. 7 in Defensive Passer rating) is far superior to Atlanta’s (No. 24). Mainly because of their strong pass defense, Tampa Bay also wins the Passer Rating Differential battle (No. 9 versus No. 14 for Atlanta).
 
But as someone once said, there a are lies, damned lies and statistics, and the fact is that the Bucs’ favorable statistical advantage compared with Atlanta’s is based partly on the lie of their easy schedule.
 
After losing at Baltimore last week, Tampa Bay is now 0-4 against Quality Opponents this year (which means they’re 7-0 against non-quality teams). Conversely, after beating the Packers last week, the Falcons are 4-2 against Quality Opponents. So forgive us if we’re not quite ready to throw bouquets at the Bucs’ feet for having some better rankings than Atlanta in a few key Quality Stats.

Perhaps the most telling statistics from last week’s big games for each team are these: Atlanta QB Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan put up a 107.3 passer rating against a great Packers’ defense in the Falcons’ last second win; Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman produced just a 67.6 rating against the Ravens’ tough defense in the Bucs’ 7-point loss.
 
Until proven otherwise, we’re still not quite ready to believe in the Buccaneers, or Freeman. But they do keep it closer than the experts anticipate.
 
Atlanta 21, Tampa Bay 20   bet now
 
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3.5)
You could search high and low and not find two teams more evenly matched than the Steelers and Ravens, who face each other in a colossal showdown for the AFC North lead.
 
Both teams are 8-3 and both have faced six Quality Opponents so far this year (Baltimore is 4-2; Pittsburgh 3-3). The teams feature two of the six defenses in the NFL to allow fewer than 200 points so far this season (Pittsburgh is No. 3 in scoring defense; Baltimore is No. 5).
 
In the Quality Stats battle, the teams are also very close, with the only significant mismatch coming when the Steelers’ No. 2-ranked Defensive Hogs line up against Baltimore’s No. 23 Offensive Hogs.
 
In the passing game, Ben Roethlisberger (99.1 rating) gets the ball downfield more effectively than Joe Flacco (Pittsburgh is 6th in Yards Per Passing Attempt; Baltimore is 11th) and has a higher passer rating (Flacco is at 93.2).
 
The Steelers also have the more efficient offense, as they rank No. 7 in Scoreability to Baltimore’s 18th. In Passer Rating Differential, the Steelers are 5th, Baltimore 6th.
 
As we said, a matchup doesn’t get much closer than this one.
 
The Ravens were the only team to defeat the Steelers while Roethlisberger was serving his four-game suspension earlier in the year, 17-14, in Pittsburgh. But it took a late Flacco TD pass to pull it out for Baltimore. Big Ben is back in town for this rematch.
 
This one is practically a toss-up, but in the end we’ll go with Pittsburgh’s more efficient offense and dominant Defensive Hogs to pull out a thriller in Baltimore.
 
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 20  bet now
 
NY Jets at New England (-3.5)
This Monday night showdown is our Game of the Week at Sports Illustrated.com.
 
New England 28, N.Y. Jets 26  bet now

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New England (-6.5) at Detroit

A battle between the 8-2 Patriots and the 2-8 Lions appears to be a mismatch on paper.   But the Patriots are not your average 8-2 team. They win despite enormous defensive flaws which history tells us will ultimately be their downfall: New England ranks 23rd in scoring defense (24.2 PPG), 27th in Defensive Passer Rating, 28th in our Defensive Hog Index, 30th in total defense (398.4 YPG), 32nd in opponent completion percentage (69.44%) and 32nd in third down defense (opponents convert 50.75% of attempts).  That’s a whole heap of issues.   Detroit, meanwhile, is not your average 2-8 team. They surrendered just three more points than they’ve scored (234-237), they’ve lost five gut-wrenching decisions and they’re a much improved team over last year with a decent and efficient offense (15th in scoring, 6th in Scoreability). Defensively, rookie stud Ndamukong Suh (7 sacks) bolsters a unit that has improved dramatically in every one of our key Quality Stats this season (No. 18 Defensive Hogs; No. 19 in Bendability; No. 20 in Defensive Passer Rating).   The Patriots are 8-2 because they’re a smart, well-coached, well-quarterbacked team that does all the little things right: No. 2 on our Offensive Hog Index and No. 1 on our Scoreability Index, which means they make the most of their opportunities on offense. New England’s defense has done just enough to keep the wins coming.   The Lions are used to the Thanksgiving spotlight. But that spotlight has been no better for the Lions than any other light: Detroit is 2-8 on Turkey Day since 2000 and has lost six in a row.   Detroit backup QB Shaun Hill will move the ball against New England’s porous pass defense. But that effort won’t be enough to put the Lions over the top against MVP candidate Tom Brady (9 TD, 0 INT, 100.6 passer rating in his last 5 games) as the Lions suffer yet another heartbreaking loss.  

New England 30, Detroit 27   BET NOW

New Orleans (-3.5) at Dallas Two weeks ago this matchup between the going-nowhere: Cowboys vs. the defending Super Bowl champs looked like blowout city for the Saints.   But Dallas is on a roll since firing Wade Phillips and exorcising the Curse of Doug Flutie. The Cowboys have won two in a row under Jason Garrett, rolling up 68 points in the process. Most encouraging? The Cowboys have actually moved up from No. 4 in Passing Yards Per Attempt with Tony Romo at the helm to No. 3 with back-up Jon Kitna taking the snaps.   That’s the good news for Dallas. The bad news is that the Saints seem to have regained their mojo in recent weeks. The Saints have won four of their last five games, improving from 3-2 to 7-3, including an impressive win over the Steelers.   New Orleans enjoys a big advantage in the battle of the trenches. Their  No. 4-ranked Offensive Hogs should have their way with the Cowboys’ 25th-ranked Defensive Hogs. On the other side of the ball, Dallas’s desperately poor secondary (No. 30 in Defensive Passer Rating) also presents an extremely vulnerable matchup against the explosive Drew Brees.   They Cowboys enjoy their shiny new coach and their traditional Turkey Day game at home. So it will be close … for a while.  

New Orleans 31, Dallas 24   BET NOW

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-8.5)

Hard to believe the last time these two teams clashed it was a playoff battle last year in Cincinnati. The Jets won handily, 24-14.   The two teams have continued on separate ways since: the Jets are 8-2 this year; the Bengals are 2-8. Sh*t, the performance of each team over the past year reminds us of a song we used to know.       Cincinnati has taken the Cold, Hard Football Facts “shiny hood ornament” theory to a whole new level in 2024. The Bengals have won two games after their risky offseason investment which paired Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco at wideout, perhaps in the hope that the two divas could put aside their egos long enough to help Carson Palmer recover his 2005-2006 passing form.   It has not worked. Palmer is as ordinary as ever: 18 TD, 13 INT, 6.7 YPA and a 82.1 passer rating.   To add insult to injury, the Bengals are coming off a 49-31 wipeout loss at home against a bad Buffalo team last week. The Bengals even led 28-7 at one point.   But, hey, we hear the T.O. and Ochocinco reality show is doing well in the ratings, so at least Cincinnati has that going for it.   The Jets, on the other hand, are “winning ugly.” Three straight heart-stopping victories over the Lions, Browns and Texans behind late-game heroics from QB Mark Sanchez. He’s been doing his best John Elway impression this season: suck for 55 minutes, then imitate Joe Montana when the game is on the line.   We’re not sure if the Jets are just lucky, or just very good, but they’re 8-2 and, as their former coach Bill Parcells used to say, they are what they are.   The Jets enjoy big advantage in most of our Quality Stats. Most notably, their third-ranked Offensive Hogs will dominate Cincinnati’s 30th-ranked Defensive Hogs. New York also brings a stingy defense (fifth in scoring defense) against a bad, inefficient offense. The Bengals rank 20th in scoring (21.5 PPG), 23rd in Scoreability and 24th in Passing Yards Per Attempt (again, so much for the shiny hood ornaments on the roster).   The statistical mismatches, coupled with last week’s Buffalo disaster for the Bengals, makes us think that this could be a mail-in special from Cincinnati.  

N.Y Jets 27, Cincinnati 17 BET NOW

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