Get to know
your NBA team
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home and
road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to changes in the
quality of a team from one season to the next as players get older and changes
occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary caps and free agency make it
more difficult for teams to stay at the top for long periods, so major improvement
or decline from season to season is commonplace in professional sports.
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Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your bets ... basically
this means getting better than the "true" odds on your team. For instance,
if your objective prediction for a game suggests that the Lakers should be receiving
5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value-betting proposition.
In this case, the risk to reward is very much in your favor, making the Lakers
a strong play.
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the Chicago
Bulls were on such team, having captured the public's admiration during the
Jordan years. High-value bets can often be found by betting against these teams
because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount of public
money ... thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds or a larger pointspread
than they realistically deserve.
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of an
injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that second-string players
are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a starter,
so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public normally
overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in this situation. However,
beware of situations where there is more than one injured stud or there is an
injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.
Bet on motivated
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other times, may play
well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially in critical
games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the team has already
clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the post-season than the
present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs
may be highly motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the season
may also be very motivated.
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